AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Port Adelaide
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 7
STK to win, 60% chance
STK 60%40% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 7.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 31.9 | 27.5 to 36.3 | 20.7 to 43.2 | 99% | 96% | 84% | 61% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.5 | 16.9 to 38.0 | 95% | 87% | 67% | 33% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.9 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 24.5 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.0 | 14.2 to 34.1 | 97% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 83% | 52% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 29.4 | 25.2 to 33.6 | 18.5 to 40.3 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Miles Bergman | FB | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.5 | 1.0 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |