AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Port Adelaide
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 7
STK to win, 60% chance
STK 60%40% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 7.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 121 | 104 to 137 | 79 to 162 | 98% | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | inside our 50% range: 119 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 109 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 150 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 106 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 140 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 104 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Willem Drew | R | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Miles Bergman | FB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 44 | 30 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |