AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Port Adelaide
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 7
STK to win, 60% chance
STK 60%40% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 7.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 50% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 35% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 23% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 63% | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Miles Bergman | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |