AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 22
WB to win, 80% chance
WB 80%20% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 28.2 | 24.0 to 32.4 | 17.5 to 38.9 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Williams | INT | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.4 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Luke Cleary | HBFL | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Dolan | RK | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.3 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 24.1 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.2 to 20.5 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |