AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 22
WB to win, 80% chance
WB 80%20% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Ed Richards | R | 106 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 117 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Bailey Williams | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 113 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Luke Cleary | HBFL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Josh Dolan | RK | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |