AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 22
WB to win, 80% chance
WB 80%20% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 60% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Cleary | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 62% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |