AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 22
WB to win, 80% chance
WB 80%20% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | INT | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 60% | 43% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Cleary | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 52% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 38% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |