AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Collingwood v Carlton
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 32.5 | 28.0 to 36.9 | 21.1 to 43.8 | 99% | 96% | 86% | 64% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 36.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.7 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 24.7 | 20.7 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.7 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.0 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | HFFL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 55% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 30.9 | 26.5 to 35.2 | 19.8 to 41.9 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 56% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 25.3 | 21.4 to 29.3 | 15.1 to 35.5 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Francis Evans | CHF | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPR | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFR | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |