AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Collingwood v Carlton
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 118 | 102 to 135 | 77 to 160 | 97% | 94% | 87% | 77% | 63% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 106 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 101 | 84 to 117 | 61 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Patrick Lipinski | HFFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 65% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ned Long | RR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 57 | 42 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 114 | 97 to 130 | 73 to 155 | 96% | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 133 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 102 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| George Hewett | INT | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 39 |
| Francis Evans | CHF | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |