AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Collingwood v Carlton
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |