AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Collingwood v Carlton
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | BPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 46% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 17% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | INT | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 72% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 63% | 46% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 29% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Francis Evans | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |