AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v GWS GIANTS
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 37
GWS to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.5 | 18.4 to 40.1 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.2 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 25.1 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HBFL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HFFR | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 12.0 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | FPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 51% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 30.0 | 25.7 to 34.2 | 19.0 to 40.9 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 50% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 29.8 | 25.5 to 34.1 | 18.9 to 40.7 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | WR | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |