AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v GWS GIANTS
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 37
GWS to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 106 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Sam Durham | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Kyle Langford | HBFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 65% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 83 | 67 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Xavier Duursma | HFFR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jye Caldwell | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | FPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 110 | 94 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 106 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 105 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Lachie Whitfield | WR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 87 | 72 to 103 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 74 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 70 | 56 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |