AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v GWS GIANTS
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 37
GWS to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 61% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FF | 2.6 | 1.7 to 3.6 | 0.4 to 4.8 | 84% | 60% | 38% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 79% | 55% | 33% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 56% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 40% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 38% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |