AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v GWS GIANTS
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 37
GWS to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 39.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HFFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPL | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.4 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | WR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | CHF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |