AFL · ROUND 19 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | RR | 30.4 | 26.1 to 34.7 | 19.3 to 41.4 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 54% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 29.6 | 25.4 to 33.9 | 18.7 to 40.5 | 97% | 91% | 77% | 48% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | CHB | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | WR | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Henry | INT | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 30.5 | 26.2 to 34.8 | 19.5 to 41.6 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 55% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 27% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 23.1 | 19.3 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Stocker | CHB | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |