AFL · ROUND 19 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | RR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 67 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 63% | 48% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 107 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 61% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 79 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| James Worpel | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Mark O'Connor | CHB | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | WR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jack Henry | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 109 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 45% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 56 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 139 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 85% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Liam Stocker | CHB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |