AFL · ROUND 19 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | CHB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 56% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 43% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.6 | 2.5 to 12.3 | 86% | 78% | 67% | 54% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 56% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 53% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Stocker | CHB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 38% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |