AFL · ROUND 19 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 8.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | INT | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 79% | 66% | 54% | 40% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 28% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 64% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 63% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 38% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Henry | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 67% | 54% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Stocker | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |