AFL · ROUND 19 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
GCS 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 6.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 29.8 | 25.6 to 34.1 | 18.9 to 40.7 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.2 | 15.0 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | INT | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.4 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | - |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey Williams | INT | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Riley Garcia | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nick Coffield | HBFR | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |