AFL · ROUND 19 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
GCS 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 6.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPR | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 56% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 59% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 68% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Davidson | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Garcia | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |