AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 77% chance
NM 23%77% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 3.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 29.9 | 25.6 to 34.2 | 19.0 to 40.8 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.1 | 16.5 to 37.5 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.7 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 17.7 | 14.2 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 15.4 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 29% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 16.0 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.9 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 7.5 | 5.1 to 9.9 | 1.3 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |