AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 77% chance
NM 23%77% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 3.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 118 | 101 to 134 | 76 to 159 | 97% | 93% | 86% | 76% | 62% | inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 63 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 58% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Max Heath | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |