AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 77% chance
NM 23%77% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 3.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 61% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 69% | 38% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |