AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 77% chance
NM 23%77% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 3.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.9 | 2.1 to 11.5 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 45% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 72% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 42% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |