AFL · ROUND 19 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 77% chance
NM 23%77% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 3.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 79% | 66% | 53% | 40% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 49% | 30% | 18% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.0 | 4.2 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 87% | 76% | 62% | 51% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 80% | 68% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 62% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |