AFL · ROUND 19 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 26
FRE to win, 84% chance
PA 16%84% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 1.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Joe Richards | C | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jackson Mead | FPR | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPL | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.6 | 5.1 to 10.0 | 1.3 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 28.2 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.9 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.5 | 16.8 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 24.5 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 67% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.5 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |