AFL · ROUND 19 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 26
FRE to win, 84% chance
PA 16%84% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 1.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Willem Drew | R | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Joe Richards | C | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 137 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jackson Mead | FPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 54 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPL | 44 | 30 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 43 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Hayden Young | R | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |