AFL · ROUND 19 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 26
FRE to win, 84% chance
PA 16%84% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 1.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 49% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Logan Evans | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 37% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |