AFL · ROUND 19 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 26
FRE to win, 84% chance
PA 16%84% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 1.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.7 | 84% | 73% | 59% | 46% | 33% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Richards | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jackson Mead | FPR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 69% | 56% | 42% | 29% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |