AFL · ROUND 19 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 26
FRE to win, 84% chance
PA 16%84% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 1.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 80% | 67% | 54% | 41% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jackson Mead | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 31% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 81% | 68% | 56% | 44% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 69% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 42% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |