AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 33
HAW to win, 89% chance
RIC 11%89% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 37.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 27% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| James Trezise | HBFR | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 9.9 to 28.0 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Noah Balta | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 45% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.2 to 34.1 | 97% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 22.9 | 19.0 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HFFR | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| William McCabe | WL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |