AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 33
HAW to win, 89% chance
RIC 11%89% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 37.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 48% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| James Trezise | HBFR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Noah Balta | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Steely Green | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Josh Ward | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 94 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 94 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 137 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Josh Weddle | HFFR | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| William McCabe | WL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |