AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 33
HAW to win, 89% chance
RIC 11%89% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 37.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 62% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 29% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 40% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Balta | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 3.0 | 2.0 to 4.0 | 0.7 to 5.4 | 85% | 64% | 50% | 32% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 42% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William McCabe | WL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |