AFL · ROUND 19 · MCG
Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 33
HAW to win, 89% chance
RIC 11%89% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 37.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | FB | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| James Trezise | HBFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 30% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 78% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 66% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HFFR | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Ward | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William McCabe | WL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |