AFL · ROUND 19 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 17
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 16
MISS Actual margin 16 · 33.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | BPL | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.8 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.4 | 10.7 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.2 | 12.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | WL | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 14.8 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 7.5 | 5.1 to 9.9 | 1.3 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |