AFL · ROUND 19 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 17
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 16
MISS Actual margin 16 · 33.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 101 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Chad Warner | R | 96 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 93 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 50% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Braeden Campbell | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| William Edwards | FB | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| James Peatling | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| James Borlase | FB | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |