AFL · ROUND 19 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 17
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 16
MISS Actual margin 16 · 33.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |