AFL · ROUND 19 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 17
SYD to win, 74% chance
SYD 74%26% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 16
MISS Actual margin 16 · 33.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 58% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | WL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 34% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |