AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Fri 20 Mar 2026, 7:10pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 1
WB to win, 51% chance
ADE 49%51% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 5.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 25.9 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 18.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.9 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 25.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 22.8 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 25.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 20.4 | - | - | 91% | 57% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 12.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 20.4 | - | - | 91% | 56% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ben Keays | R | 15.7 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | INT | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.2 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 12.8 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 12.7 | - | - | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 30% | 7% | 30.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 25.8 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 28.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 20.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 24.7 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 29.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 23.2 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 27.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.8 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 16.5 | - | - | 68% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 15.6 | - | - | 59% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 14.4 | - | - | 47% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 13.5 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 12.2 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |