AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Fri 20 Mar 2026, 7:10pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 1
WB to win, 51% chance
ADE 49%51% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 5.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 54% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | R | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.6 | - | - | 92% | 73% | 48% | 26% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 62% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.8 | - | - | 57% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |