AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Fri 20 Mar 2026, 7:10pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 1
WB to win, 51% chance
ADE 49%51% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 5.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.9 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 7.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 8.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 81% | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 2.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 2.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 3.9 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | R | 3.5 | - | - | 67% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.2 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 5.2 | - | - | 89% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 6.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 5.0 | - | - | 87% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 9.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 7.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |