AFL · ROUND 2 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Melbourne
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:35pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 5
FRE to win, 57% chance
FRE 57%43% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.6 / 16.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 98 / 64 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.5 / 39.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 5.9 / 4.0 | 98 / 132 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.8 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 5.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 89 / 89 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 18.6 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 70 / 70 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 17.8 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 68 / 55 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 16.8 / 32.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 72 / 110 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 16.6 / 17.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 80 / 72 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 16.0 / 20.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 68 / 60 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.3 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 5.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 61 / 73 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 15.3 / 24.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 62 / 83 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.0 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 59 / 55 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.2 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 53 / 68 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.0 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 55 / 74 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 14.0 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 9.0 | 2.3 / 4.0 | 56 / 93 |
| Brandon Walker | CHB | 13.8 / - | 0.0 / - | 3.0 / - | 2.2 / - | 51 / - |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.8 / 7.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 62 / 29 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.1 / 17.0 | 1.6 / 4.0 | 5.1 / 10.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 67 / 110 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.5 / 6.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 70 / 33 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 10.4 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 44 / 74 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.0 / 5.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 45 / 15 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 9.8 / 12.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 53 / 46 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 9.4 / 15.0 | 0.9 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 47 / 81 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 9.1 / 10.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 48 / 34 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.0 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.8 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 91 / 97 |
| Trent Rivers | R | 21.5 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 10.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 84 / 92 |
| Jack Steele | C | 20.6 / 31.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 6.0 | 6.0 / 9.0 | 86 / 138 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.0 / 23.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 11.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 106 / 127 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 19.4 / 16.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 80 / 78 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 17.6 / 14.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 68 / 47 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 17.2 / 22.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 66 / 91 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 16.8 / 13.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 66 / 49 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.2 / 14.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 7.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 59 / 59 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 15.2 / 15.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 63 / 50 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPR | 14.9 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 65 / 23 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.4 / 12.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 5.1 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 67 / 63 |
| Xavier Lindsay | CHB | 13.2 / 14.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 6.0 | 52 / 69 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 12.6 / 12.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 56 / 44 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 12.6 / 13.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 9.0 | 53 / 80 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 12.3 / 4.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 52 / 22 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 12.1 / 16.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 8.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 50 / 79 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 11.8 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 47 / 47 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 11.4 / 10.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 4.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 59 / 41 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 10.8 / 10.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 48 / 45 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 10.1 / 8.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 55 / 52 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 10.1 / 11.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 49 / 57 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.4 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 53 / 33 |