AFL · ROUND 2 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Melbourne
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:35pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 5
FRE to win, 57% chance
FRE 57%43% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.6 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 16.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.5 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 39.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.8 | - | - | 98% | 81% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 25.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 32.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.3 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 15.3 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.0 | - | - | 43% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 14.0 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Brandon Walker | CHB | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.5 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 10.4 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 9.4 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 9.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 26.0 |
| Trent Rivers | R | 21.5 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 20.6 | - | - | 92% | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.0 | - | - | 89% | 53% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 17.6 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 17.2 | - | - | 74% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPR | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | CHB | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 12.6 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 12.6 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 12.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.4 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |