AFL · ROUND 2 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Melbourne
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:35pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 5
FRE to win, 57% chance
FRE 57%43% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 98 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 132 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 98 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 64 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 89 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 89 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 80 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 72 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 72 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 110 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 70 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 33 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 68 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 60 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 55 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 110 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 83 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 29 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 73 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 55 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 93 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 74 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Brandon Walker | CHB | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 34 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 81 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 44 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 74 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 106 | - | - | 96% | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 127 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 97 |
| Jack Steele | C | 86 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 138 |
| Trent Rivers | R | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 92 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 78 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 47 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 63 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 49 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 91 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 23 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 50 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 59 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 59 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 41 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 44 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 52 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 53 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 33 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 80 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 22 |
| Xavier Lindsay | CHB | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 69 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 79 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 57 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 48 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 45 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 47 |