AFL · ROUND 2 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Melbourne
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:35pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 5
FRE to win, 57% chance
FRE 57%43% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.7 | - | - | 81% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 1.4 | - | - | 76% | 41% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brandon Walker | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 2.1 | - | - | 87% | 61% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 84% | 56% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPR | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | CHB | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | R | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |