AFL · ROUND 2 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Melbourne
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:35pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 5
FRE to win, 57% chance
FRE 57%43% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.9 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 4.9 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 3.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 3.1 | - | - | 60% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brandon Walker | CHB | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 2.0 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 1.7 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 9.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | WL | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 9.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 2.8 | - | - | 52% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | R | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |