AFL · ROUND 2 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v St Kilda
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 14
GWS to win, 69% chance
GWS 69%31% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 18.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 27.9 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 74% | 37% | 11% | 28.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 27.8 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 73% | 36% | 11% | 32.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 25.5 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 33.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 39.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 17.5 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFR | 16.8 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 15.8 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 15.6 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 14.8 | - | - | 51% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | CHF | 11.0 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 8.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.7 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 78% | 42% | 14% | 31.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 27.3 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 70% | 33% | 9% | 27.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 25.0 | - | - | 99% | 87% | 53% | 18% | 3% | 22.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 21.0 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.1 | - | - | 73% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 16.7 | - | - | 70% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | INT | 13.6 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Mason Wood | CHF | 13.4 | - | - | 37% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 9.6 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |