AFL · ROUND 2 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v St Kilda
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 14
GWS to win, 69% chance
GWS 69%31% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 18.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 6.9 | - | - | 91% | 82% | 69% | 54% | 39% | 4.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 5.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 4.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 71% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 9.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 5.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFR | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 7.7 | - | - | 95% | 88% | 78% | 65% | 51% | 11.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 7.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 9.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 6.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 5.0 |
| Mason Wood | CHF | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 5.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 2.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |