AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Hawthorn v Sydney Swans
Thu 19 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 63% chance
HAW 63%37% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.0 / 31.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 93 / 100 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 24.1 / 16.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 5.0 | 91 / 81 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 21.7 / 27.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 84 / 90 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 21.4 / 22.0 | 0.8 / 3.0 | 4.8 / 5.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 87 / 99 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 21.0 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 7.1 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 84 / 89 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 20.9 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 84 / 60 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 19.6 / 22.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 80 / 76 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 19.4 / 22.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 80 / 72 |
| Conor Nash | CHF | 19.1 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 5.1 / 9.0 | 75 / 86 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 18.8 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 71 / 67 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.2 / 20.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 78 / 89 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 17.1 / 17.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 6.0 | 70 / 73 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 17.0 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 71 / 62 |
| Josh Weddle | R | 16.9 / 20.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 72 / 74 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 16.3 / 22.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 66 / 80 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.5 / 14.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 93 / 81 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 13.1 / 18.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 64 / 70 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 12.0 / 13.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 5.5 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 76 / 84 |
| Mabior Chol | INT | 11.7 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 5.0 | 72 / 56 |
| Sam Butler | FPL | 10.5 / 14.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 49 / 63 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.4 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 47 / 63 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 9.1 / 17.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 9.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 50 / 80 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.4 / 7.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 60 / 49 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | BPR | 22.5 / 29.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 8.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 85 / 98 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 21.2 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 83 / 85 |
| Chad Warner | R | 21.1 / 27.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 85 / 82 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 20.6 / 24.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 4.9 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 84 / 85 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 19.0 / 19.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 77 / 80 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 18.4 / 13.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 73 / 47 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 18.0 / 19.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 97 / 88 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.2 / 19.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 5.0 | 67 / 74 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 15.8 / 12.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 6.0 / 12.0 | 74 / 80 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 15.4 / 12.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 5.0 | 67 / 58 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 15.0 / 24.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 58 / 87 |
| Tom Papley | FF | 14.9 / 14.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 69 / 53 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 14.5 / 13.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 57 / 33 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 14.3 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 55 / 49 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 13.9 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 55 / 43 |
| Corey Warner | HFFR | 12.2 / 13.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 50 / 43 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 12.1 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 49 / 59 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 12.0 / 4.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 53 / 19 |
| Charlie Curnow | FPR | 11.1 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 5.2 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 64 / 35 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.5 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 3.0 | 4.9 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 57 / 78 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 9.8 / 7.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 49 / 35 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 9.1 / 9.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 41 / 34 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.3 / 7.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 0.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 52 / 31 |